Generated by Antecedent Engine v2.3
PROPAGATING. 524 of 1,495 instruments (35.1%) are in active structural transition. The absorption ratio sits at 0.904 (z-score −0.03) — below the systemic threshold. The system is spreading but not concentrating.
| Asset Class | RED % | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Bond | 100% | Complete transition |
| Index | 68.2% | Following bonds |
| Commodity | 63.6% | Energy/agriculture repricing |
| FX | 37.0% | Moderate, evenly split |
| Stock | 32.4% | Broad but not extreme |
| ETF | 31.6% | Leading the cascade despite lower RED % (flow-driven) |
| Crypto | 0% | Decoupled |
GICS: Utilities (57.6%) and Basic Materials (49.4%) are the equity hotspots. Defensive sectors transitioning first is a risk-off fingerprint, not a rotational one.
European concentration is stark: EU instruments at 100% RED, Norway 85.7%, Sweden 58.3%. Australia at 90% RED stands out — likely commodity-linked. The cascade is not US-centric; it is European/commodity-driven with Oceanic transmission.
FX is the connector. Bond signal flows through currency pairs into equity markets. The coupling matrix confirms: bond/ETF (+0.085) is the strongest multi-instrument link, while crypto/stock (−0.078) is inversely correlated — moving in opposite directions.
100% match to Greece Propagating Phase 1 on the European intensity dimension. But also 90% similarity to the Crypto Collapse 2022 and 88% to the Taper Tantrum — structurally different events. The engine is seeing pattern elements from multiple historical templates simultaneously, which suggests a mixed-character event rather than a clean replay of any single past episode.
The analog data is more useful: the closest match (June 2016, 93.7% similarity) deepened — RED expanded by 19.4 percentage points. The next two matches (early 2017) either held or contracted. Split verdict.
This is the critical data point: 80.8% of RED-state instruments have positive 5-day returns, averaging +3.52%. GREEN instruments average +2.03%. The instruments undergoing the most structural change are actually gaining the most.
This is not a crash. The engine is detecting a structural repricing — bonds, indices, commodities all moving simultaneously with positive returns. The structure of relationships is changing even as prices rise.
PROPAGATING is the correct classification. The risk is not in the current state but in the 105 primed equities. If those flip, RED breadth jumps to 40%+ and the system may reach TENSIONED territory. The core 24 instruments show RED oscillating between 33–50% over the last 10 days — unstable, not trending cleanly in either direction.
Watch: The bond/index transmission. If indices push past 70% RED while returns stay positive, the system is repricing structurally. If returns turn negative while RED expands, the character shifts from repricing to unwinding.
The engine is currently in a PROPAGATING structural state across the monitored universe of 1,495 instruments. While the absorption ratio remains stable with a low z-score (0.082), indicating no immediate systemic concentration risk, the breadth of transitions is expanding significantly.
A multi-instrument cascade is active, led by the crypto instrument class. RED state breadth has risen from 33.3% to 42.9% over the last 10 trading days. 111 primed instruments (AMBER with high structural scores) could push total transitioning instruments to 635, with 102 concentrated in equities. The bond instrument class shows extreme signal pressure at 100% RED.
Utilities (53.4% RED) and Basic Materials (51.8% RED) lead transitions. Financial Services (43.2% RED) and Industrials (41.1% RED) show significant signal pressure. Crypto remains stable at 88% GREEN, diverging from broader equity and bond markets.
Geographic signal pressure concentrated in Europe (EU instruments at 100% RED), AUD (90%), and Norway (85.7%). Multi-instrument links show perfect correlation within crypto pairs and strong inverse relationships between volatility-linked instruments.
RED-state instruments averaged +3.66% 5-day returns, with only 15.5% recording negative returns. Structural transitions accompanied by upward price movement — expansion in volatility rather than directional collapse.
Risk consistent with PROPAGATING. 102 primed equity instruments suggest potential for broad-based structural shifts. Watch for transition of the 111 primed instruments into RED, particularly within US and EU equity markets.
PROPAGATING. Transitioned on 2026-03-24 from PRIMING.
The breadth is expanding toward higher signal pressure, with RED% increasing from 16.7% to 33.3%. This expansion is accompanied by a contraction in GREEN% instruments, which fell from 58.3% to 41.7% over the 10-day period.
The structural environment has been highly oscillatory, recording 9 state transitions within the prior 30 days. The system has primarily cycled through rapid movements between PRIMING and PROPAGATING, following a brief excursion into TENSIONED signal states earlier in the month.
This transition indicates a lack of structural stabilisation as the system moves back into a PROPAGATING state. The pattern suggests that signal pressure is expanding across the multi-instrument landscape without settling, characterised by high-frequency state oscillation and widening signal footprints.
PROPAGATING. This transition occurred on 2026-03-03, moving from a TENSIONED state.
The 10-day trajectory shows extreme volatility in breadth, characterised by a sharp expansion of signal pressure. After a period of stabilising GREEN% between 45% and 58%, the most recent session saw RED% surge to 45.8%, representing a significant +25.0% increase in RED instruments relative to the mid-period lows.
The structural history over the last 30 days is highly oscillatory, featuring 11 state changes. The system has moved frequently between PRIMING and PROPAGATING throughout February, with recent activity showing a brief excursion into TENSIONED before the current transition. This suggests a lack of structural stability as the engine cycles through rapid-fire transitions.
The sudden jump in RED% alongside the move to PROPAGATING indicates a high-velocity structural transition rather than a gradual shift. While the 30-day history is marked by frequent oscillations, the magnitude of today's signal pressure expansion suggests this is a significant propagation event rather than a brief spike.
TENSIONED. Occurred on 2026-02-25, transitioning from PRIMING.
The signal pressure is contracting. The RED% breadth has moved from a peak of 41.7% mid-month to a low of 20.8%, currently stabilising at 25.0%.
The system has experienced high structural volatility, recording 10 state changes within the last 30 days. The period was characterised by intense oscillation between PRIMING and PROPAGATING states before the current transition into TENSIONED.
This transition is significant as it breaks a sustained cycle of PRIMING/PROPAGATING oscillations. While the breadth of RED% instruments is contracting, the move into a TENSIONED state suggests that the underlying signal pressure has reached a new structural threshold.
PROPAGATING. Transitioned on 2026-02-18 from PRIMING.
The 10-day trajectory shows expanding signal pressure, with RED breadth increasing by 8.4 percentage points from 33.3% on February 5 to 41.7% on the current date. The trend is characterised by high oscillation within a widening range of signal intensity.
The structural history for the prior 30 days is highly unstable, recording 9 state transitions. Since early February, the system has been caught in a rapid, non-sustained oscillation between PRIMING and PROPAGATING, indicating that no single structural state has been able to hold.
This transition marks the latest pulse in a high-frequency cycle of structural instability. The simultaneous return to PROPAGATING and the expansion of RED breadth suggests that signal pressure is intensifying across the 24 core instruments rather than stabilising.
PROPAGATING. Occurred on 2026-02-09, transitioning from PRIMING.
The breadth is expanding in terms of RED% signal pressure, increasing from 20.8% to 33.3%. Concurrently, GREEN% coverage is contracting, moving from 45.8% to 37.5%. The 10-day trajectory shows an oscillating but upward trend in abnormal signals across the core instruments.
The structural history for the prior 30 days reveals high volatility, with 10 distinct state transitions recorded. The market has moved through a series of rapid-fire shifts between INERT and PRIMING earlier in the month, but the most recent window is characterised by intense oscillation between PRIMING and PROPAGATING states.
This transition pattern suggests that signal pressure is not settling into a sustained direction, but is instead manifesting as high-frequency structural reconfigurations. The significance of this date is the failure of the PRIMING state to stabilise, indicating that the multi-instrument landscape is caught in a cycle of intermittent propagation rather than a single, cohesive movement.
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